November 9, 2003    

Rantings on American waffling and FUD factor concerning continued presence in Iraq

(FUD factor: Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt)

In Iraq, the minority groups of Bathists and Sunnis benefited from Saddam Hussein’s rule. 

Through the 30 years of Saddam’s rule, these were the people who received the houses taken from the Shiites and Kurds.  These were the people who got the best jobs and power positions.

These were the people who got much of the oil money.  During the last 12 years of UN sanctions, the oil for food money was mostly diverted to these minority groups while the Shiite and Kurd children’s starvation and disease were showcased for journalists.

These minority groups benefited from the 30-year rule of terror and oppression.  They were very loyal to Saddam. It should be expected that they want their power, privilege and loot back.

It will take time to establish a government, laws, police system and social institutions composed of the majority of Iraqi citizens.  The Bathists and Saddam loyalists know this and are taking aim appropriately.

The last half-year’s deaths of our soldiers are a tragedy.  These deaths are a loss of their whole lives to the individual soldiers involved.  Yet we also have soldier deaths in garrison and in normal training, from normal accidents and drunken driving and boating accidents.  The death rate of the 130,000 soldiers in Iraq isn’t terribly much higher than the death rate of those same soldiers would be if we brought them home.

Even so, if the death rate of American soldiers were to be a hundred times higher, we must not retreat.  We must not run.

We ran from Vietnam and let the North conquer it (killing tens of thousands of South Vietnamese during the consolidation) and resulting in the communist conquest of Cambodia (resulting in about 2,000,000 deaths). We ran from Beirut and let Syria take control of Lebanon.  

We ran from Somalia and left that nation in the hands of feuding warlords.  We made no response to the first attempt to kill 50,000 people by bringing down the World Trade Towers in the early ‘90s. We made trivial responses to the bombing of two of our embassies on the same day.  We made trivial responses to the bombing of the USS Cole.  

We did force Iraq out of Kuwait but we did not follow through to destroy Saddam – something viewed as weakness by many people in the region.  (And yes, I know there’s LOTS more complexity to these issues – here, I’m just discussing our reputation for cutting and running.)

Finally, after the second attempt of the terrorists to kill 50,000 people in the World Trade Center (which fortunately only killed about 3,000) we responded.  We have attacked al Qaeda terrorists worldwide.  We helped the locals overthrow the Taliban/al Qaeda control of Afghanistan. We forced Saddam Hussein and his minions out of control of Iraq.

Now, our satellite broadcast news shows all nine of the opposition party members continually carping about how the conquest of Iraq was a based on a lie and should be repudiated.  The world is shown these candidates criticizing our conduct of the war follow-up (without their ever offering an alternative). The world hears commentators saying Bush is in trouble and that he’s down to 50-50 vote against an “unnamed” Democrat.  The world sees the breast-beating and wailing every time one or two more Americans are killed.  They see the anguish spoken due to there being one or two Americans killed a day.

Saddam and his minions are GREATLY encouraged and see victory in sight.  They can see that, if they can simply kill a few Americans a day, the Americans will run again.

Yet this is a war/peace we can’t afford to lose.  To let the evil people win in Iraq would be heinous. It will make it difficult or impossible to help other regional dictator-controlled states change over to democracy.  Our defeat would, I think, enable and encourage a great increase in direct attacks on Western countries, especially the United States.

Our defeat in Iraq would enable the vengeful return to power of the Bathists and Saddam loyalist minority groups.  We need only look at the films of their treatment of prisoners, hear the stories of the shopping of schools for girls who were raped and murdered, listen to the reports of daughters raped and children tortured before their parents in order to torture the parents, look at the mass graves, view the remains of prisoners which the families are STILL terrified to claim for burial. We only need to see these things to know that letting Saddam and his minions return to power would shame us forever.  And we would DESERVE to be shamed forever if we let that happen.

On the other hand, our success in helping Iraq change to be a civilized democracy will go very far to putting the terrorists and fanatics on the defensive.  Doing this at OUR cost and without taking their wealth from them, giving them their freedom and then stepping back to let them BE free will be to our credit worldwide.  

Responses:

Ed,
I really enjoyed this piece and couldn't agree with you more.  In our sound byte, microwave culture we want everything now. If it doesn't happen quickly, we begin to lose patience.  I know this administration is resolved to see the task accomplished.  I hope for both ours, and the world's sake, the American people see the comments of some of the democratic candidates for what they are: Despicable (I personally would call some of their comments treason!), politically motivated, and very harmful to the safety of our citizens here at home and our poor troops, who are just trying to get the job done and get out of there.
 
I have not forgotten about the anti-war activists whose misguided opposition of the war gave false hope to the Hussein regime, and helped strengthen the resolve of many who would have rapidly surrendered upon our entry into Iraq. I have no doubt that many of the fine soldiers who gave their lives during Gulf II paid this price needlessly (Many Iraqi's paid this price needlessly as well). Likewise, the opposition that is being launched against our post war Iraq effort is being spearheaded not by those who think it's wrong, but by those who simply hate the man who currently resides in the White House.  Who pays the price? Our soldiers, of course.
 
Anyway, I commend your efforts to educate people in this matter.  Hopefully we will stay the course, and, like WWII, history will vindicate our efforts.
 
Chris [vet - fairly recent active duty till about '99 or 2000]

 

Percy responded:

I'm interested in continuing the debate, Ed, although I am certain that you will NOT agree with everything I have to say! Portland State University had "Alumni Weekend" this past, and I went to a lecture on Iraq.  My remarks are from that and my own thoughts.

Ed wrote:
> In Iraq, the minority groups of Bathists and Sunnis benefited from Saddam Hussein’s rule.

Percy says:  This is true.  But, as the lecture pointed out, a lot of Baathists were like a lot of Communists in Russia - they only joined the party to get a job!  These are the ones that we can convert, and to lump them all together is a big mistake.

Ed responds: Percy,  I’ll agree about the Bathists group containing a LOT of people who joined them some because they had to and many because they wanted to be part of the power structure in a repressive country.  We are now recruiting a lot of these people to be part of the new government.  You don't think we should just accept them all just as Saddam hired and placed them, do you?  It takes some time because the new government needs to interview co-workers to see which of the former functionaries are likely to work properly for the NEW government.

Ed wrote:
>It will take time to establish a government, laws,
>
police system and social institutions composed
>
of the majority of Iraqi citizens.

Percy says:  And time is precisely what America Does Not Have.  We came in as an Army of Liberation.  With each passing day, we become more an Army of Occupation.  Since the current administration (which I feel should be replaced) did Not Plan the post-war, they do Not Have a Clue as to what to do.  They need to turn it over to someone NOW! 

Ed responds:   I don’t agree about the time.  In my humble opinion, we can’t afford to NOT take sufficient time to make an orderly transfer of government function to the Iraqis.

To whom would you “turn it over to someone NOW”?  The UN who just cut and ran after their one building got bombed? To the French who have a huge vested interest in having Saddam return to power (the same Saddam who gave France exclusive right to develop the richest unproven oil fields in the world)? To the Russians who hold billions of dollars of IOUs from Saddam?  To a consortium of Arab dictators (and which ones)?  

Percy answers:
An excellent question.  I agree that getting the Iraqies to take over would be like herding cats (or airplane pilots) because of their numerous agendas.  Perhaps a federation of some kind, with the Marsh Arabs in the south, the Kurds in the North (despite Turkish protests) and a non-Saddam Baathist in Tikrit, etc.  I think they would be better than the aforementioned, because of the reasons you state and others.  So what would be "sufficient time?"  I say it would be at such a rate that the people of Iraq are seeing progress - both in the large, and in the small.  One idea - where persons are willing to get on with their business, like the Marsh Arabs, let them have the water that Saddam took away, pull out all the troops except for a couple PR-types, and allow them quasi-self-rule.  Take more time elsewhere. 

Ed says: As yet, the Iraqi leaders aren’t yet ready to assume control of Iraq but they’re getting there.  At this point, I think we can expect to see a progression of responsibility shift to the new Iraqi government.  I expect you’ll see them write a constitution, organize and hold elections and develop a bureaucracy loyal (mostly) to the new government.  As these things happen, you’ll also see Iraqi institutions take more and more day-to-day power in their country.

Sensible Iraqi citizens will see and ARE SEEING these changes.

Percy answers:
True enough.  But remember, Iraq, like other places, was cobbled together by the British during their Empire Period.  If we try for a "unified" country, perhaps the only way we'd get such would be under another Saddam-a-like!  Autonomous regions sounds good to me.  Remember, the United States started out in a similar manner.

Ed comments:  You're right and that's going to be a major problem.  Yet their neighbors are very insistent that the state of Iraq NOT be broken up into sub-states based on its nationalities.  I seem to kinda-recall that we agreed we wouldn't allow the breakup of Iraq as a precondition to getting some coalition assistance.  (Maybe we should just forget that coalition stuff in the future, considering the problems it's caused in the recent past. Just a joke, I think.)

>Even so, if the death rate of American soldiers were to be a hundred times higher, we must not retreat. We must not run.

Percy wrote: Ed - the best diplomatic place to be is one where one can advance without danger, and retreat without losing face.  We are Not there now.  Advancing will bring more than just causalties!  It could wreck the economy (deficetes) and sour the body politic, besides costing us whatever good will we have remaining on this planet. 
NOTE:  This is not to say "run."  Without a plan, it will be hard.  We have to involve as many other nations as possible.  Yes, that means giving up the oil revenues that the current administration planned on using to finance the conquest!  Yes, it involves the French (of Freedom Fries, which are a known health hazard...) and others.  Yes, it is the end of the ego trip.  But until the Iraqis are in charge, it will go down hill.  Let's not get me started on the outher "bug outs" that we have in our history.

Ed responds:  Percy, I disagree that we want to be in a place where we can advance without danger.  There is danger in living.  There is a lot of danger in staying home and hiding.  I also don’t give much for saving face.  I DO think we need to follow through to give full protection to the Iraqis who would like to make a government without their murderous dictator.

Maybe they’ll yet call up a fat, old retired Staff Sergeant to be retrained as an MP.  If so, I’ll go willingly.

>We did force Iraq out of Kuwait but we did not follow through to destroy Saddam – something viewed as weakness by many people in the region. (And yes, I know there’s LOTS more complexity to these issues – here, I’m just discussing our reputation for cutting and running.)

Percy says:  You are correct in that it was a Big Mistake not taking out Saddam the first time.  A Signal Blunder.  But George I listened to his advisors, some of which talk to George II, and was convinced that that minority you speak of would raise up and finish the job.

They Totally Misread the situation, as events showed. 

Which brings up another reason for our invasion of Iraq - one I have not seen anywhere.  That is the R word - Revenge.  "You snookered my daddy, and you ain't snookering me!"  And it is not George the Younger, but the entire clique he has with him that feel that way.

Ed responds:  But I didn’t say that it was a “Big Mistake not taking out Saddam the first time.”  Our permission to base our war on sand instead of salt water was that we had to promise to NOT go all the way.  Had we gone on, we could well have been shooting behind us as well as ahead of us and our entire supply train was on the soil of the people to whom we had made the promise.

Whether the promise was a good idea or not, I don’t know.

You’re sure right that we sold out the southern Shiites and Kurds.  I wouldn’t blame them a bit for only believing what they actually SEE us do.

Revenge as the main reason for this invasion?  Poppycock!  President George I wasn’t shamed by Saddam.  He shamed Saddam.  He was limited by keeping the promises he made to the Saudis and other Arabs.

Just as stated by the President, the reason for this war was to prevent weapons of mass destruction (in deployable quantities) from falling into the hands of one of the most evil dictators on the planet – the same dictator who had made flat-out invasions of conquest on TWO neighboring countries in 10 years. 

This is the same dictator who had positive weapons development programs prepared though largely in mothballs.  The pressure came from the imminent breakdown of the sanctions and inspection process.  The sanctions had already begun to leak like sieves as France, Germany, Russia and others made some good profits selling arms to Saddam.

Saddam’s steal-the-wealth-and-let-the-children-starve publicity program was working well and the sanctions wouldn’t have lasted another two years.  Inspections with NO coercive power would have found nothing or been dropped.  The time to stop Saddam’s weapons development program had to be this year or never.  Saddam knew it just we well as we did.

Revenge for daddy?  Percy, please don’t repeat the childish poppycock of Bush’s enemies.

>Now, our satellite broadcast news shows all nine of the opposition party members continually carping about how the conquest of Iraq was a based on a lie and should be repudiated

Percy says:  You'll note that they did not say that about `Nam...   I feel our fate is in the hands of the Dems and Al Queada.  If the Dems don't come up with a viable alternative, and Al Q. gets in another good lick, Dub-yuh has it wired!  I'm saddened that there is not a good debate going on, and I feel we will end up all the worse for it.

Ed answers:  “Our fate is in the hands of the Dems and Al Queada” you say?  God help us, then.  The filtering process has put a bunch of the dumbest anti-military, anti-war politicos into the Democratic party already. 

The TOTAL lack of any coherent proposals by the “magnificent nine” (the seven dwarves and two jokers) has shown that we’d better not put our trust in THE DEMOCRAT’S hands even (or especially) if things get a LOT worse.  I’d rather put our national safety in Al Queda’s hands than in the hands of any of the seven dwarves (or the two jokers).

I hope you can count on Bush having the next election wired.  The economy is well established on the rebound and no rational person would put our national defense in the hands of Democrats.

Actually, I do wish the Democrats would make a rational debate.  Their continually trying to bash Bush, in an irrational manner, to feather their personal political nests sickens me.


>Our defeat in Iraq would enable the vengeful return to power of the Bathists and Saddam loyalist minority groups.

Percy says:  We did not lose in Viet Nam.  If we would have, then Washington DC would have been renamed Ho Chi Minh City, not Saigon.  We lost the cold war after the Russians did.  America is bigger than any defeat a foreign power (or a bunch of fanatics with plastique and Kalashnikovs) can render.  We only defeat ourselves - sometimes by overreaching! 

Ed responds:  Western civilization did lose in Vietnam.  We weren’t defeated by the North Vietnamese, except by their continual pressure till we cowered and ran.  The North Vietnamese were weak but they didn’t give up.  We were strong but we did give up.  They won, we lost and tens of thousands of South Vietnamese paid with their lives and freedom.  I’m ashamed.

If we lose in Iraq, then the local nationals in the conflict area will suffer grievously.

Percy says:  Truly, Ed, I respect you.  At least you are willing to look at what is going on geopolitically.  Just do not mistake pressure against your points as hatred, "America must leave,' or what have you.  We both saw the Viet Nam war, which, IMHO, almost distroyed the country. 

Ed responds:  Percy, Indeed, I respect your thoughts as well, even when I disagree with them.  I also learn from your thoughts and you sometimes change my mind when you bring up good points.

I do think that intelligent people who exchange thoughts can usually come to agreement.  Sometimes we will give different values to some assumptions and basics and will, no matter what, still disagree.  I can always respect people who do think and make the best effort they can to make good choices.

 

Another respondent says:

You want to know how to do this?  Simple.  Get a history book.  Read about the denazification of Germany.  There were lots of roving bands of Nazi after the war.  But they were suppressed by our level of troop strength.
 
This cowboy fool correctly estimated the troop strength required to TAKE Iraq.  He failed to even consider the troop strength required to KEEP Iraq.  Now we are 250.000 troops short and those that are there want to come home: they like everyone else was told 'something for nothing' and 'we will be home for Christmas'.  Poppycock.  Fixing Iraq will take 10 years of hard work.
 
All of this gibberish about 'weapons of mass destruction', etc. is NOW a smoke screen for the fact that the cowboy and his rabble failure to plan.  Don't point out the his daddy's 'failures', etc.  Don't point out that Sadam was evil.  SADAM IS DEAD.  (Or else in hiding low enough that we can ignore him.)

Ed responds:  I do think that Saddam was so evil and struck such fear into the Iraqi people that he will be a factor until his dead body is put on display.  Some Iraqis will fear his return even then.  Many Iraqis are afraid to join the new government or even speak out for freedom for fear of Saddam's minions.  There's a darn good reason for this.  Read this link:
http://msnbc.com/news/990599.asp?0dm=C24DN 

Here's a web link with some good very recent history and analysis of troop strength and composition.  This does support the troop strength assertion made in the previous response.
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0903/090803nj1.htm